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專家談美伊矛盾升級破壞中東地區和平穩定美方軍事冒險行為害人害
2020-01-11 17:06  www.lianbaiwei.cn

人民网北京1月9日电(薄晨棣)1月3日凌晨,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“圣城旅”指挥官苏莱曼尼在伊拉克遭美军空袭身亡,伊朗随后誓言报复。8日凌晨,驻有美军的至少两个伊拉克军事基地遭到伊朗数十枚导弹袭击。随后,特朗普表示,美国将会对伊朗施加更多经济制裁。

BEIJING, Jan.9(Reuters)- Iran has vowed revenge after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade\" commander Sleimani was killed in a U.S. air strike in Iraq in the early hours of January 3. In the early hours of the morning, at least two Iraqi military bases stationed in the United States were attacked by dozens of Iranian missiles. Later, Trump said the United States would impose more economic sanctions on Iran.

美方侵犯伊拉克领土主权实施“斩首行动”,是否有违国际关系准则?对中东地区局势造成了怎样的威胁?人民网强国论坛专访中国中东学会会长杨光、北京大学阿拉伯伊斯兰文化研究所所长吴冰冰进行解读。

Is it against the norms of international relations that the US has violated Iraq's territorial sovereignty by committing \"decapitation \"? What threat to the situation in the Middle East? Yang Guang, president of the China Middle East Society, and Wu Bingbing, director of the Institute of Arab Islamic Culture at Peking University, spoke at the Forum.

强国论坛:伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队8日凌晨向驻有美军的至少两个伊拉克军事基地发射数十枚导弹。伊朗外长表示,不期望扩大战争,但坚决打击任何来犯之敌。因美国空袭行动而起的报复冲突的恶性循环,对中东地区局势稳定造成了怎样的破坏?

Power Forum: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired dozens of missiles at at least two Iraqi military bases with U.S. troops in the early hours of the morning. Iran's foreign minister said he did not expect to expand the war, but was determined to strike any incoming enemy. What has been done to the stability of the Middle East by the vicious cycle of retaliatory clashes over US air strikes?

杨光:中东地区目前是“2 1”格局——阿拉伯国家阵营和非阿拉伯国家阵营,以及两大阵营的中间地带,主要由黎巴嫩、叙利亚、伊拉克等国家构成。两大阵营本身没有直接冲突,冲突点主要反映在中间地带的国家上,这些国家也正是中东地区最敏感,民族矛盾、教派矛盾最集中的地方。因此,如何对待中间地带国家的冲突,对于中东地区的和平稳定意义尤其重大。作为一个负责任的大国,更不该在伊拉克这种敏感的中间地带国家激化冲突,但美国这次的所作所为恰恰激化了矛盾,对于地区稳定非常不利。

Yang Guang: The Middle East is now a \"21\" pattern - the Arab and non-Arab camps, and the middle of the two camps, mainly composed of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and other countries. There is no direct conflict between the two camps themselves, and the points of conflict are mainly reflected in the countries in the middle zone, which are also the most sensitive, ethnic and sectarian contradictions in the Middle East. Therefore, how to deal with the conflicts of the countries in the Middle East is particularly important for the peace and stability of the Middle East region. As a responsible power, not to mention in iraq, the sensitive middle of the country intensified the conflict, but the u. s. has done precisely this time to inflame the contradictions, to the detriment of regional stability.

吴冰冰:美国在中东地区采取的一些军事行动,实际上制造了更多的紧张局势。解决问题的根本,应是美国停止对中东地区的干预,尤其是停止在中东地区通过军事手段来进行政权更迭和制造紧张的方式。

Wu Bingbing: Some of the US military operations in the Middle East have actually created more tension. The fundamental solution should be for the United States to stop its intervention in the Middle East, especially in ways that would bring about regime change and tension through military means in the region.

杨光:美国在第三国领土上进行战争行动,这种行为是否符合国际法相关规定值得商榷。此外,美国提出,苏莱曼尼正策划恐怖袭击方案,所以采取了此次行动,但美国却至今未举出证据。在国际事务的很多方面,美国也常常有一些借口,但拿不出证据,很难让人相信。

Yang Guang: Whether the United States conducts war operations on the territory of a third country is in accordance with the relevant provisions of international law is debatable. In addition, the United States proposed that Suleimani is planning a terrorist attack, so the operation, but the United States has not cited evidence. In many aspects of international affairs, the United States also often has some excuses, but it is hard to believe without showing evidence.

吴冰冰:在伊拉克的领土上采取伊拉克政府完全不知道的军事行动,对访问伊拉克的高级别外国人士进行袭杀,这对伊拉克的主权是一种完全的侵犯。伊拉克方面也通过议会立法的方式作出回应,要求美国撤出军队,这恰恰是对美军侵犯伊拉克主权、并且美军无法给伊拉克带来安全的很明确的回应。

Wu Bingbing: It is a complete violation of Iraq's sovereignty to carry out military operations on its territory that the Iraqi government is completely unaware of and to attack and kill high-level foreign nationals visiting Iraq. Iraq has also responded through parliamentary legislation, demanding that the United States withdraw its troops in a clear response to the US military's violation of Iraq's sovereignty and its inability to bring security to Iraq.

强国论坛:连日来,美国国内70多个城市举行反战集会,民众抗议美国增兵中东,要求美军撤出伊拉克。为什么特朗普政府在如此大的反战声中还要发起这次袭击?

Power Forum: In recent days, more than 70 cities in the United States held anti-war rallies, people protested against the U.S. surge in the Middle East, demanding U.S. troops withdraw from Iraq. Why did the Trump administration launch the attack in such a loud anti-war voice?

吴冰冰:2020年是大选年,特朗普政府一方面要考虑避免出现类似于奥巴马政府时期发生过的美国驻利比亚班加西领事馆遇袭的事件;另一方面,特朗普政府要表示他比奥巴马政府更有能力、更有效果,能够更强硬地面对这种挑战和威胁。但从目前的情况来看,这其实引发了地区整体紧张不安的情绪。从美国的角度讲,很多美国人实际上不希望看到美国再陷入一场长期的地面战争,因为无论是阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争,美国的直接介入实际上没有给这两个国家带来安全,反倒是使这两个国家变得更加不安全。美国没有能力解决地区动荡,这种消耗也是美国民众不愿意看到的。

Wu Bingbing:2020 is an election year, and the Trump administration, on the one hand, should consider avoiding an attack similar to the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, that occurred during the Obama administration; on the other hand, the Trump administration should say that he is more capable and effective than the Obama administration and can be tougher to face such challenges and threats. But as things stand, this has triggered overall regional nervousness. From America's point of view, many Americans actually do not want to see the United States fall into a long-term ground war, because whether it is the war in Afghanistan or Iraq, the direct involvement of the United States does not actually bring security to the two countries, but rather makes the two countries more insecure. America's inability to address regional unrest is a consumption that Americans do not want to see.

杨光:特朗普上台后,一直致力于推翻奥巴马签署的伊核协议,重新和伊朗谈判。不仅要彻底堵死伊朗发展核武器的所有路径,而且要把像伊朗导弹问题、伊朗在周边地区的作用问题,全部纳入到和伊朗谈判的议程中来,最后置伊朗于死地。此次特朗普政府杀害了苏莱曼尼,但并未准备和伊朗打一场全面的战争,因为美国大选在即,发动一场战争,把更多的美国军人送到中东,这对特朗普的连任非常不利。

Yang Guang: After Trump took office, he has been working to overturn the Iran nuclear deal signed by Obama and renegotiate with Iran. Not only must iran's path to nuclear weapons be completely blocked, but the issue of the iranian missile issue and its role in the surrounding region should be fully integrated into the agenda of negotiations with iran and eventually put iran to death. The Trump administration killed Suleimani but wasn't prepared to fight a full-blown war with Iran, as the U.S. election was about to launch a war to send more U.S. troops to the Middle East, which was very bad for Trump's re-election.

另一方面,伊朗也没有准备好要和美国进行一场全面战争,双方军事力量相差很悬殊。虽然现在局势紧张,但报复和反报复事件演变成双方全面冲突的可能性不是很大,最终可能还是要通过谈判来解决。现在伊朗的表态,都给以后的谈判留出了“门缝”。有些人谈论因此事件会引发第三次世界大战,这种可能性实际上是不大的。

On the other hand, Iran is not ready for a full-scale war with the United States, and the military forces on both sides are very different. Although the situation is now tense, the possibility that the incidents of reprisals and counter-reports will evolve into an all-out conflict between the two sides is not great and may ultimately have to be settled through negotiations. Now Iran's position has left the door open for future negotiations. The possibility that some people would talk of events triggering World War III is virtually impossible.

强国论坛:针对1月3日的空袭事件,美国五角大楼发表声明,称其在他国领土采取先发制人行动系为防止“恐怖主义”。此前,美国却将中国新疆采取预防性反恐措施诬称为非法,这是否表现出美国实施的霸权政治和双重标准?

The powerful forum: in response to the january 3 air strike, the pentagon issued a statement saying it had taken pre-emptive action on the territory of other countries to prevent \"terrorism \". Has the US falsely accused China's Xinjiang of adopting preventive counter-terrorism measures in the past been a manifestation of its hegemonic politics and double standards?

杨光:新疆事务是中国的内政,新疆地区发生的问题,不是人权和宗教问题,而是反分裂和反暴恐问题。西方一些国家,对我们为了维护新疆各族人民包括穆斯林群众的安全而采取的预防性反恐措施说三道四,进行干涉,这完全是他们给中国的和平崛起制造障碍的行为。

Yang Guang: Xinjiang affairs are China's internal affairs, and the problems occurring in the Xinjiang region are not human rights and religious issues, but anti-secession and anti-terror issues. Some countries in the West have said and said something about the preventive counter-terrorism measures we have adopted to safeguard the security of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang, including the Muslim people, and have intervened only to create obstacles to China's peaceful rise.

美国在许多国际问题上,都采取双重标准。他们为自己的利益设定了很多新的标准,比如“人权高于主权”,是想用的时候就用,不想用的时候就不用,形成了“新干涉主义”。“新干涉主义”,就是美国等一些西方国家,超越现行国际法基本原则,违反《联合国宪章》,完全出于自己的战略图谋制定的新标准,为自己在国际上的干涉行为做解释。他们在新疆问题上的所作所为,就是这样一种“新干涉主义”的写照。

The United States adopts double standards on many international issues. They have set many new standards for their own interests, such as \"human rights over sovereignty \", which is used when they want to use it, and\" new interventionism \"when they do not. \"New interventionism\" means that some Western countries, such as the United States, go beyond the basic principles of existing international law, violate the Charter of the United Nations and interpret their acts of intervention in the international arena solely on the basis of new standards formulated by their own strategic designs. Their actions on the Xinjiang issue are a reflection of such \"new interventionism \".