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預警疏散遭襲還原美軍空城3小時伊朗導彈
2020-01-11 17:06  www.lianbaiwei.cn

  同一时刻,在半个地球之外的美国华盛顿白宫战情室,副总统彭斯与总统国家安全事务助理奥布莱恩等人心里默念,终于还是来了。

At the same time, halfway across the globe in the White House war room in Washington, D.C., Vice President Pence and the president's national security assistant, O'Brien, and others, finally came.

  据《纽约时报》8日报道,伊朗的16枚导弹是在美国东部时间7日下午5时许开始发射的。美国国防部称,其中有至少11枚击中了阿萨德空军基地,1枚击中了埃尔比勒的一处设施。

According to the new york times reported on the 8th, iran's 16 missiles began at 5 p.m. eastern time of 7 p.m. At least 11 of them hit Assad's air base and one hit a facility in Erbil, according to the US Department of Defense.

  伊朗媒体此前援引伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队人员的话称,有至少80名美军死亡,大约200人受伤,大量无人驾驶飞机和直升机遭摧毁。但美国总统特朗普8日上午在白宫发表电视讲话称,美军并未出现伤亡,基地也仅受到了最低程度的损失。

At least 80 U.S. troops were killed and about 200 wounded, and a large number of drones and helicopters were destroyed, Iranian media previously cited Islamic Revolutionary Guard personnel as saying. But U.S. President Donald Trump said in a televised address at the White House on the morning of the 8th that there were no casualties in the U.S. military and that the base was only minimally damaged.

  《纽约时报》综合多位美国官员的话称,其实在3日袭杀了伊朗高级将领苏莱曼尼后,美军就一直在提防着伊朗,侦察卫时刻监视着伊朗导弹发射器的踪迹,美国国家安全局也在持续侦听着伊朗的军事官员。

《 The New York Times, combining the words of a number of U.S. officials, said the U.S. military had been wary of Iran since the attack on Iran's top general, Suleimani, on Wednesday, monitoring the Iranian missile launchers and continuing to listen to Iranian military officials.

  《华盛顿邮报》9日称,作为预防措施,美军此前已向中东部署了第82空降师的约4500名士兵,并重组了该地区的已有兵力。为保护目前美国在伊拉克驻军人数最多的阿萨德空军基地,美军也提早制定了疏散方案,并加固了掩体。

《 Washington Post 9, as a precautionary measure, the United States has previously deployed to the Middle East 82nd Airborne Division of about 4,500 soldiers, and the region's existing strength has been reorganized. U.S. troops have also prepared early evacuation plans and reinforced bunkers to protect Assad's air base, currently the largest U.S. presence in Iraq.

  据一位美国国防官员透露,袭击发生时,阿萨德空军基地其实并无“爱国者”反导系统保护,相关设备早前被部署到了更可能成为伊朗报复目标的其他位置。

At the time of the attack, assad's air base had no \"patriot\" anti-missile system, and the equipment had been deployed to other locations more likely to be the target of iranian retaliation, according to a us defense official.

  不过,由于情报信息一直十分模糊,美方直到7日上午都没有确定伊朗将在何时、何地发动袭击,在此期间特朗普还抽身会了到访的希腊总理米佐塔基斯。

However, because the intelligence information has been very vague, the United States until the morning of the 7th did not determine when and where Iran will launch the attack, during which Trump also withdrew from the visit of Greek Prime Minister Mizotakis.

  转折出现在7日下午2点。当时,人在椭圆办公室的特朗普刚和记者说完,若伊朗动了不该动的手,就将要承担严重后果,美国已做好“万全的准备”,伊朗即将发射导弹的预警就已送到了楼下战情室彭斯与奥布莱恩的面前。

The turning point was at 2 p.m. on the 7th. At the time, mr. trump and reporters in the oval office said that if iran moved the wrong hand, it would have serious consequences. The u.s. was ready to launch a missile warning to the downstairs war room, pence and o'brian.

  与彭斯及奥布莱恩一同待命的,还有国务卿蓬佩奥、参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利、副总统国家安全事务助理基斯·凯洛格、代理国家情报总监约瑟夫·马奎尔、白宫办公厅代理主任米克·马尔瓦尼、中央情报局局长吉娜·哈斯佩尔等人。

Along with Pence and O'Brien, there were Secretary of State Pompeo, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Mili, Vice President Keith Kellogg, Assistant National Security Services, Acting National Intelligence Director Joseph Maguire, acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, CIA Director Gina Haspel and others.

  在众人讨论了约两小时后,白宫记者们也开始得知有关空袭的预警。7日下午4点,还曾有消息误报称位于巴格达北部的塔吉空军基地遇袭。美国驻伊拉克大使馆及伊拉克美军基地随即进入应急疏散状态。一小时后,伊朗的导弹才划过了他们所在的掩体的上空。

After about two hours of public discussion, White House reporters also began to learn of warnings about the airstrikes. At 4 p.m. on the 7th, there were also reports of an attack on Taj airbase in northern Baghdad. The U.S. Embassy in Iraq and the U.S. military base in Iraq immediately entered emergency evacuation. An hour later, Iranian missiles crossed over their bunkers.

  在美国政府看来,美军之所以能使出这样的“空城计”,主要就是与预警系统起效有关。据《连线》8日介绍,美国拥有庞大的雷达及卫星侦察网络,从1960年代建立并发展至今,已经可以做到即时捕捉导弹发射动态,以及预判导弹飞行轨迹。

In the U. S. government's view, the reason why the U. S. military can use such a \"empty city plan\" is mainly related to the effectiveness of the early warning system. The United States has a huge radar and satellite surveillance network, which has been established and developed since the 1960s to achieve immediate capture of missile launch dynamics and predict missile trajectory, according to Wired.

  而该网络对于伊朗此次所发射的弹道导弹的预判精度尤其高,哪怕从导弹发射到击中目标只有几分钟,但这已足够被锁定目标的人员疏散至掩体。更何况,在此次空袭中,美军已提前数小时做好了疏散准备。

The network's prediction of iran's ballistic missiles was particularly accurate, even if only a few minutes from the launch to hit the target, but it was enough to evacuate the target to the bunker. Moreover, in the air raid, the U. S. troops have been ready to evacuate hours ahead of schedule.

伊朗导弹射程,1-8分别是Shahab-1、Fateh-110、Shahab2、Zolfaghar、Qiam-1、Shahab-3、Sejjil、Soumar,Shahab与Fateh即为“流星”与“征服者”来源:CNBC

Range of Iranian missiles,1-8 Shahab-1, Fateh-110, Shahab2, Zolfaghar, Qiam-1, Shahab-3, Sejjil, Soumar, Shahab and Fateh are \"meteors\" and \"conquerors\" sources: CNBC

  不过,也还是有人认为此次美军出现“零伤亡”是运气使然。如伊拉克方面就透露说,曾传递伊朗方面的“口头警告”,说空袭“已经或即将开始”。美国国防部长马克·埃斯珀则予以否认,称反而是美军试图及时给伊拉克预警。

However, some believe that the \"zero casualties\" of the u. s. military is the result of luck. Iraq, for its part, said it had delivered a \"verbal warning\" by the Iranian side that the air strikes were \"or are about to begin \". U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper denied it, saying it was the U.S. military who tried to warn Iraq in time.

  还有一些美国官员认为,“零伤亡”是因为伊朗有意避开了美军人员的密集区域,以寻求缓和局势,毕竟连特朗普都说,伊朗“似乎正在收手”,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队空军司令哈吉扎德(AmirAliHajizadeh)也称,空袭的目标主要是基地的设施设备,而不是美军士兵。

Some u. s.officials believe the \"zero casualties\" were due to iran's intent to avoid a crowded area of u. s.military in search of a de-escalation. After all, even mr. trump said iran \"seems to be stopping \"and amir ali hajizadeh, commander of the islamic revolutionary's air force, said the air strikes were aimed primarily at base facilities, not american soldiers.

  但彭斯与米利均不认同这样的说法。彭斯9日说,从情报来看,伊朗发射导弹就是想杀死美军。米利也在8日强调,伊朗所用的导弹弹头重达500至1000公斤,威力巨大,“我认为,他们就是有意击毁基地的建筑、车辆、装备和飞机,并杀死那里的人。”

But neither Pence nor Miley agrees. Pence said on the 9th, from the intelligence point of view, Iran fired missiles is intended to kill U.S. troops. Mili also stressed on the 8th that iran used a missile warhead weighing 500 to 1000 kg, powerful,\" I think they are deliberately destroying the base's buildings, vehicles, equipment and aircraft and killing people there.\"